Drought and extreme heat can result in tree mortality and transform the regions forested ecosystems (Ch. Since coastal terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are highly sensitive to increases in inundation and salinity, sea level rise will result in the rapid conversion of these systems to tidal saline habitats. B. Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA), Climate Resilience Pilot Program, Washington, DC, 4 pp. Butterworth, M. K., C. W. Morin, and A. C. Comrie, 2017: An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States. Yando, E. S., M. J. Osland, J. M. Willis, R. H. Day, K. W. Krauss, and M. W. Hester, 2016: Salt marsh-mangrove ecotones: Using structural gradients to investigate the effects of woody plant encroachment on plantsoil interactions and ecosystem carbon pools. Newman, S., M. Carroll, P. Jakes, and L. Higgins, 2014: Hurricanes and wildfires: Generic characteristics of community adaptive capacity. Many transportation and storm water systems have not been designed to withstand these events. Larcher, W., 2003: Physiological Plant Ecology: Ecophysiology and Stress Physiology of Functional Groups. Rural communities have benefited from the proliferation of automobiles and improvements in transportation infrastructure, which allow for more rural- to-urban commuting. Interviewees also identified low-income and minority communities, substandard housing, lack of access to vehicles for evacuation, limited modes of communication, and limited local government capacity as contributing factors to difficulties in emergency planning.288, The healthcare system in the Southeast is already overburdened and may be further stressed by climate change. The growing number of extreme rainfall events is stressing the deteriorating infrastructure in the Southeast. The cost savings from an increased level of production economies of scale mean, for instance, that a seafood processor with sizable business volume can bulk-purchase supplies at a lower rate than a smaller-scale competitor. McNeill, R., D. J. Nelson, and D. Wilson, 2014: Water's edge: The crisis of rising sea levels. Long causeways with intermittent bridges to connect the mainland to these popular tourism destinations were built decades ago at only a few feet above MHHW. Drought has been a recurrent issue in the Southeast affecting agriculture, forestry, and water resources.253 With rapid growth in population and overall demand, drought is increasingly a concern for water resource management sectors such as cities, ecosystems, and energy production. Avery, D.R. WebCoastal Plains Trucking provides safe, superior logistics services to consistently deliver value to our customers. Rainfall totals across the region exceeded amounts that would be expected to occur once every 1,000 years (or a less than 0.1% annual probability of occurrence), causing the Amite and Comite Rivers to surge past their banks and resulting in some 50,000 homes across the region filling with more than 18 inches of water.85 Nearly 10 times the number of homes received major flooding (18 inches or more) during this event compared to a historic 1983 flood in Baton Rouge, and the damage resulted in more than 2 million cubic yards of curbside debris from cleaning up homes (enough to fill over 600 Olympic-sized pools).86 A preceding event in northern Louisiana on March 812, 2016, caused $2.4 billion in damages (in 2017 dollars; $2.3 billion in 2015 dollars) and five casualties,84 illustrating that inland low-lying areas in the Southeast region are also vulnerable to flooding impacts. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, 111 pp. Figure 1. 13: Air Quality, KM 1). Washington, DC, 97 pp. | 6: Forests, KM 1 and KM 3).274, Wildfire is a well-known risk in the Southeast region, where it occurs with greater frequency than any other U.S. region.275 However, mitigation strategies, particularly the use of prescribed fire, can significantly reduce wildfire risk and have been widely adopted across rural communities in the Southeast.190 A doubling of prescribed fire at the landscape scale has been found to reduce wildfire ignitions by a factor of four,4 while it is well documented that prescribed fire reduces the potential for crown fire in treated forest stands.276With greater projected fire risks,191,277 more attention on how to foster fire-adapted communities offers opportunities for risk reduction (see Case Study Prescribed Fire and Key Message 3).278,279, Heat-related health threats are already a risk in outdoor jobs and activities. Kirkman, L. K., R. J. Mitchell, R. C. Helton, and M. B. While well known for agriculture and forestry, rural areas also support manufacturing and tourism.250, In 2013, approximately 34% of the U.S. manufacturing output, or about $700 billion (dollar year not reported), came from the Southeast and Texas, including rural areas.255 While manufacturing growth has been particularly strong in the Southeast in recent years, future climate changes would pose challenges for economic competitiveness. Dorcas, M. E., J. D. Willson, R. N. Reed, R. W. Snow, M. R. Rochford, M. A. Miller, W. E. Meshaka, P. T. Andreadis, F. J. Mazzotti, C. M. Romagosa, and K. M. Hart, 2012: Severe mammal declines coincide with proliferation of invasive Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park. Can Polyketone (PK) Materials Provide an Alternative to Polyoxymethylene (POM)? Howell, B. J., 2002: Appalachian culture and environmental planning: Expanding the role of cultural sciences. NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Tallahassee, FL. These climatic drivers play critical roles and greatly influence the distribution, structure, and functioning of ecosystems; hence, changes in these climatic drivers will transform ecosystems in the region and greatly alter the distribution and abundance of species. That said, lagging rural regions are likely to be geographically remote, with poor infrastructure, low population density, and limited employment opportunities. While all regional residents and communities are potentially at risk for some impacts, some communities or populations are at greater risk due to their locations, services available, and economic situations. Sweet, W. V., J. J. Marra, and GregoryDusek, 2017: 2016StateofU.S.HighTideFloodinganda2017Outlook. B. Blum, M. D., and H. H. Roberts, 2009: Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise. A. Higher temperatures can result in decreasing productivity of some cultivated crops, including cotton, corn, soybeans, and rice.7 Livestock, which includes hogs and pigs, horses, ponies, mules, burros, and donkeys as well as poultry and processed poultry for consumption (for example, chicken nuggets), is a large component of the agricultural sector for these states and the Nation.258 Livestock are all vulnerable to heat stress, and their care under projected future conditions would require new or enhanced adaptive strategies (Ch. Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. For example, since the end of the last glacial maximum (about 19,000 years agothe most recent period of maximum ice extent),121 forests in the region have been transformed by warming temperatures, sea level rise, and glacial retreat.122,123 Spruce species that were once present in the regions forests have moved northward and have been replaced by oaks and other less cold-tolerant tree species that have expanded from the south.124 And along the coast, freeze-sensitive mangrove forests and other tropical coastal species have been expanding northward and upslope since the last glacial maximum.125,126,127,128,129, In the coming decades and centuries, climate change will continue to transform many ecosystems throughout the Southeast,6,130,131,132,133,134,135 which would affect many of the societal benefits these ecosystems provide. Manzello, D. P., 2015: Rapid recent warming of coral reefs in the Florida Keys. WebIn the southern part of the coastal plain, refineries are king; Texas and Louisiana are the two largest producers and refiners of crude oil in the nation, and Louisiana has one of the largest shipping ports for oil in the US. High tide flooding is now posing daily risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in the Southeast.1,2. Service Assessment. The Northeast Coastal non-metropolitan area includes Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Dare, Halifax, Hertford, Hyde, Martin, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Tyrrell, Warren, and Washington counties. Conner, W. H., T. W. Doyle, and K. W. Krauss, Eds., 2007: Ecology of Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetlands of the Southeastern United States. Since 1990, Mesa color solutions have been delivered with responsiveness and flexibility WebIn the Coastal Plains region of Texas there are many job opportunities. To sustain economic well-being, rural communities must continue to invest in the productivity of unique assets that support economic development. SFRCCC, 2017: Regional Climate Action Plan 2.0 [web tool]. In particular, coastal cities in the Southeast face multiple climate risks, and many planning efforts are underway in these cities. Of the $50 billion, approximately $30$35 billion accounts for wind and flood damage to a combination of residential and commercial properties, automobiles, and boatswith 80%90% of this cost felt in Florida. U. S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 16 pp. The Southeasts diverse natural systems, which provide many benefits to society, will be transformed by climate change. | Moore, G. W., C. B. Edgar, J. G. Vogel, R. A. Washington-Allen, R. G. March, and R. Zehnder, 2016: Tree mortality from an exceptional drought spanning mesic to semiarid ecoregions. WebAs a low-lying coastal plain, major crops include rice, sugar, coffee, cocoa, coconuts, edible oils, fruit, vegetables, and tobacco. As a result, median household income in the rural counties closest to the coast Camden ($60,714), Dare ($54,787) and Carteret ($50,599) are all higher than the state average of $48,256.1. Site Map EPA 430R17001. The highest tides of the year are generally the perigean, or spring, tides, which occur when the moon is full or new and is closest to the Earth. Jacobson, E. R., D. G. Barker, T. M. Barker, R. Mauldin, M. L. Avery, R. Engeman, and S. Secor, 2012: Environmental temperatures, physiology and behavior limit the range expansion of invasive Burmese pythons in southeastern USA. The Southeast includes vast expanses of coastal and inland low-lying areas, the southern (and highest) portion of the Appalachian Mountains, numerous high-growth metropolitan areas, and large rural expanses. Coral reef mortality in the Florida Keys and across the globe has been very high in recent decades, due in part to warming ocean temperatures, nutrient enrichment, overfishing, and coastal development.240,241,242,243,244 Coral elevation and volume in the Florida Keys have been declining in recent decades,245 and present-day temperatures in the region are already close to bleaching thresholds; hence, it is likely that many of the remaining coral reefs in the Southeast will be lost in the coming decades.246,247 In addition to warming temperatures, accelerated ocean acidification is also expected to contribute to coral reef mortality and decline.248,249. More What are the major industries in the coastal plains region of Texas? Justice, and J. R. G. Townshend, 2013: High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Large ports in the Southeast, such as Charleston, Savannah, and Jacksonville, and the rails and roads that link to them, are particularly vulnerable to both coastal flooding and sea level rise (Ch. C3P, 2017: Carolinas Precipitation Patterns & Probabilities (C3P): An Atlas of Hydroclimate Extremes [web page]. Much of the coastal region is located near Interstate 95, facilitating transport of goods to large markets in other states. Done, 2017: Economic effectiveness of implementing a statewide building code: The case of Florida. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 053. Standard Contractual Clauses, Sustainable Packaging with Collapsible Totes, Learn about these efficient, safe and sustainability-enabling containers. USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), . Even though the wind speed fell below tropical storm strength, many communities along the coasts of Florida, Georgia, North and South Carolina, and Virginia experienced severe wind and storm surge damage with some near-historic levels of coastal flooding. Increases in extreme rainfall events and high tide coastal floods due to future climate change will impact the quality of life of permanent residents as well as tourists visiting the low-lying and coastal regions of the Southeast. Wong, G. K. L., and C. Y. Jim, 2018: Abundance of urban male mosquitoes by green infrastructure types: Implications for landscape design and vector management. Griffith, J. Silliman, B. R., J. van de Koppel, M. D. Bertness, L. E. Stanton, and I. The Southeast is the region of the country with the most favorable conditions for this mosquito and thus faces the greatest threat from diseases the mosquito carries.30 Climate change is expected to make conditions more suitable for transmission of certain vector-borne diseases, including year-round transmission in southern Florida. While heat illness is more often associated with urban settings, rural populations are also at risk. Williams, J. W., B. N. Shuman, T. Webb, P. J. Bartlein, and P. L. Leduc, 2004: Late-quaternary vegetation dynamics in North America: Scaling from taxa to biomes. The annual mean projected losses are roughly halved (0.28 billion labor hours) and with a model range from 0.19 to 0.43 billion labor hours lost under RCP4.5 by 2090.35. Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, & Biodiversity, Built Environment, Urban Systems, & Cities, Climate Effects on U.S. International Interests, Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, & Complex Systems, Hawaii & U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, Reducing Risks Through Adaptation Actions, Reducing Risks Through Emissions Mitigation, Information in the Fourth National Climate Assessment, Scenarios for the National Climate Assessment, https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads, 10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0723:ccafd]2.0.co;2, 10.1890/1540-9295(2005)003[0479:LOFSCF]2.0.CO;2, 10.1666/0094-8373(2000)26[194:ROPPAC]2.0.CO;2, 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.50dfc7f46798675fc63e7d7da563da76, 10.1890/0012-9658(1999)080[2045:SLRACF]2.0.CO;2, Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc. For example, higher rates of heat-related illness have been reported in rural North Carolina compared to urban locations.280 However, strategies to reduce health impacts on hot days, such as staying indoors or altering times outdoors, are already contributing to reducing heat-related illness in the Southeast.281, Workers in the agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing sectors together with construction and support, waste, and remediation services work are the most highly vulnerable to heat-related deaths in the United States, representing almost 68% of heat-related deaths nationally.282 Six of the ten states with the highest occupational heat-related deaths in these sectors are in the Southeast region, accounting for 28.6% of occupational heat-related deaths between 2000 and 2010.282 By 2090, under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), the Southeast is projected to have the largest heat-related impacts on labor productivity in the country, resulting in average annual losses of 570 million labor hours, or $47 billion (in 2015 dollars, undiscounted), a cost representing a third of total national projected losses, although these figures do not include adaptations by workers or industries (Figure 19.21).35, Investing in increased cooling is one likely form of adaptation. Climate change thus acts to increase the vulnerability of this plant to the existing stressors. The Southeasts coastal plain and inland low-lying regions support a rapidly growing population, a tourism economy, critical industries, and important cultural resources that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts (very likely, very high confidence). Although rural areas have some distinct economic attributes, they also increasingly mirror development patterns in more populated locals. Liu, Y., J. Stanturf, and S. Goodrick, 2010: Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate. Gubernot, D. M., G. B. Anderson, and K. L. Hunting, 2015: Characterizing occupational heat-related mortality in the United States, 20002010: An analysis using the census of fatal occupational injuries database. B. Santos, L. F. W. Bortolon, A. USDA Agricultural Research Service, Washington, DC, 61 pp. Hall, J. A. Mendelssohn, 2005: Drought, snails, and large-scale die-off of southern U.S. salt marshes. If you place a premium on safety and performance, CPT is the Lovett, H. B., S. B. Snider, K. K. Gore, and R. C. Muoz, Eds., 2016: Luce, C. H., J. M. Vose, N. Pederson, J. Campbell, C. Millar, P. Kormos, and R. Woods, 2016: Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty. 15: Tribes, KM 3). Supplement to State of the Climate: National Overview for May 2016. From October 15, 2015, deep tropical moisture combined with a slow-moving (stalled) upper-level low pressure system to pump moisture into South Carolinas coastal and interior regions. 12: Transportation, KM 1).52,63,67,68. State of Louisiana, . Extreme rainfall events have increased in frequency and intensity in the Southeast, and there is high confidence they will continue to increase in the future (Figure 19.3).19 The region, as a whole, has experienced increases in the number of days with more than 3 inches of precipitation (Figure 19.3) and a 16% increase in observed 5-year maximum daily precipitation (the amount falling in an event expected to occur only once every 5 years).19 Both the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events are projected to continue increasing in the region under both lower and higher scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Masson, V., C. Marchadier, L. Adolphe, R. Aguejdad, P. Avner, M. Bonhomme, G. Bretagne, X. Briottet, B. Bueno, C. de Munck, O. Doukari, S. Hallegatte, J. Hidalgo, T. Houet, J. See how our specially formulated colorants can help differentiate your brand, Learn about Avient's liquid fiber additives and colorants for spun-dyed fibers, Improve the aesthetics, sustainability, performance and processing of your next project, 2021 All Rights Reserved. Sweet, W., J. Browse and download our literature to learn more about Avient solutions and services. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Site Map. Cooling degree days (a measure of the need for air conditioning [cooling] based on daily average temperatures rising above a standard temperatureoften 65F) nearly double, while heating degree days (a measure of the need for heating) decrease by over a third (Figure 19.22). Avery, M. L., R. M. Engeman, K. L. Keacher, J. S. Humphrey, W. E. Bruce, T. C. Mathies, and R. E. Mauldin, 2010: Cold weather and the potential range of invasive Burmese pythons. Like urban centers, rural areas with significant manufacturing bases develop commerce hubs and advanced supply chains in specific industries to compete with producers globally. certainty in Key Findings. Oxford University Press, Oxford; New York, 432 pp. U.S. Stocks, and B. M. Wotton, 2001: Climate change and forest disturbances: Climate change can affect forests by altering the frequency, intensity, duration, and timing of fire, drought, introduced species, insect and pathogen outbreaks, hurricanes, windstorms, ice storms, or landslides. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS), Washington, DC, accessed March 14. A. Knott, and C. M. Oswalt, 2017: Divergence of species responses to climate change. Business and Industries. Demuzere, M., K. Orru, O. Heidrich, E. Olazabal, D. Geneletti, H. Orru, A. G. Bhave, N. Mittal, E. Feliu, and M. Faehnle, 2014: Mitigating and adapting to climate change: Multi-functional and multi-scale assessment of green urban infrastructure. doi: Sallenger, A. H., K. S. Doran, and P. A. Howd, 2012: Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America. WebThe Atlantic Plain is one of eight distinct physiographic regions of the United States. Wiki User. EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 214 pp. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC, 271 pp. By the end of the century under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), projections indicate approximately double the number of heavy rainfall events (2-day precipitation events with a 5-year return period) and a 21% increase in the amount of rain falling on the heaviest precipitation days (days with a 20-year return period).19,81 These projected increases would directly affect the vulnerability of the Southeasts coastal and low-lying areas. Kennedy, J. P., M. W. Pil, C. E. Proffitt, W. A. Boeger, A. M. Stanford, and D. J. Devlin, 2016: Postglacial expansion pathways of red mangrove, Rhizophora mangle, in the Caribbean Basin and Florida. Howard, R. J., R. H. Day, K. W. Krauss, A. S. From, L. Allain, and N. Cormier, 2017: Hydrologic restoration in a dynamic subtropical mangrove-to-marsh ecotone. Hansen, M. C., P. V. Potapov, R. Moore, M. Hancher, S. A. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina, D. Thau, S. V. Stehman, S. J. Goetz, T. R. Loveland, A. Kommareddy, A. Egorov, L. Chini, C. O. USDA-NASS, 2017: Statistics by State [web site]. Generally, more remote places have the lowest median household incomes. Sea level rise is already causing an increase in high tide flood events in the Southeast region and is adding to the impact of more extreme coastal flooding events. Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, and B. L. Thrasher, 2014: Statistical downscaling using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). Fire has historically played an important role in the region, and ecological diversity in many southeastern natural systems is dependent upon fire.115,116,134,189 In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire.3,4,5,6, Hurricanes and rising sea levels are aspects of climate change that will have a tremendous effect on coastal ecosystems in the Southeast. Reduction of existing stresses can increase resilience (very likely, high confidence). Economic Activity 1 Industries found in the Coastal Plains include processing, manufacturing and marketing products, mainly seafood and wood. Rural Communities near North Carolinas coasts are neither consistently prospering nor uniformly in decline. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 75 pp. A. Sorrie, A. S. Weakley, D. B. Amenities and quality-of-life increasingly influence rural migration flows and business development. Such changes would negatively impact the regions labor-intensive agricultural industry and compound existing social stresses in rural areas related to limited local community capabilities and associated with rural demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence (very likely, high confidence). Zervas, C., 2009: Sea level variations of the United States 1854-2006. Much of the Southeast regions coast is bordered by large expanses of salt marsh and barrier islands. For example, the number of days with 3 or more inches of precipitation has been historically high over the past 25 years, with the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s ranking as the decades with the 1st, 3rd, and 2nd highest number of events, respectively (Figure 19.3). Trends towards a more urbanized and denser Southeast are expected to continue, creating new climate vulnerabilities. U.S. You are leaving The Fourth National Climate Assessment and will be redirected to a new site in 5 seconds. Without significant adaptation measures, these regions are projected to experience daily high tide flooding by the end of the century (likely, high confidence). Further refinement of these focal areas occurred in conjunction with the public Regional Engagement Workshop, held on the campus of North Carolina State University in March 2017 and in six satellite locations across the Southeast region. Parker, L. E., and J. T. Abatzoglou, 2016: Projected changes in cold hardiness zones and suitable overwinter ranges of perennial crops over the United States. High tide coastal flooding has started to inundate these low-lying roads, restricting access during certain times of the day and causing public safety concerns. Traditionally their economies are resource-based, dependent on harvesting or extracting natural resources with little or no processing. Easterling, K.E. 17: Complex Systems). Townsend, E., and M. Tomasic, 2017: S.C. The scope and scale of adaptation efforts, which are already underway, will affect future vulnerability and risk. https://www.ncbroadband.gov/connectingnc/broadband-adoption. - Duke, N. C., J. M. Kovacs, A. D. Griffiths, L. Preece, D. J. E. Hill, P. van Oosterzee, J. Mackenzie, H. S. Morning, and D. Burrows, 2017: Large-scale dieback of mangroves in Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria: A severe ecosystem response, coincidental with an unusually extreme weather event. The depth of discussion for any particular topic and Key Message is dependent on the availability of supporting literature and chapter length limitations. For example, non-metropolitan Harnett County sits between metropolitan Wake County to the north and Cumberland County to the south, making work possible in cities from Raleigh and Fayetteville. Many southeastern cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change compared to cities in other regions, with expected impacts to infrastructure and human health. ), medium consensus, Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc. Recent changes in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan migration streams. They are found in the different sub-regions called: Post Oak-Belt, Piney Woods, and the Blackland Prairies. before making use of copyrighted material. During the 2010s, the number of nights with minimum temperatures greater than 75F was nearly double the long-term average for 19011960 (Figure 19.1), while the length of the freeze-free season was nearly 1.5 weeks greater than any other period in the historical record (Figure 19.2). van der Wiel, K., S. B. Kapnick, G. J. van Oldenborgh, K. Whan, S. Philip, G. A. Vecchi, R. K. Singh, J. Arrighi, and H. Cullen, 2017: Rapid attribution of theAugust 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. B. Smith, W. Perkins, L. Jantarasami, and J. Martinich, 2015: Climate change risks to US infrastructure: Impacts on roads, bridges, coastal development, and urban drainage. Mayor's Office of Sustainability, Atlanta, GA, 48 pp. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 162 pp. Remote rural communities in the coastal area face fewer employment opportunities and longer distances to urban areas. Mazzotti, F. J., M. S. Cherkiss, K. M. Hart, R. W. Snow, M. R. Rochford, M. E. Dorcas, and R. N. Reed, 2011: Cold-induced mortality of invasive Burmese pythons in south Florida. USGS Professional Paper 1815.

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